深度研究商品展望报告-活猪LH

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2.2. 我国现状

2.2.1. 猪肉供需情况

猪肉是中国人最重要的肉类蛋白质来源。 我国是世界猪肉生产和消费大国。 它仍然是国民餐桌上消费量最大的肉类品种。 人均年猪肉消费量在20公斤左右。 也是我国CPI的重要组成部分。 部分,所以自古就有“猪食能安定天下”之说。

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2018年底,我国爆发非洲猪瘟,大量种猪被处置。 种猪供应大幅减少,可供销售的种猪短缺。 2020年,各地积极落实稳定生猪生产供应的各项政策措施,新建、扩建养殖场陆续建成投产,有效促进生猪产能持续恢复。 2021年,全国生猪销售67128万头,比上年增加14424万头,增长27.4%; 猪肉产量5296万吨,增长1183万吨,增长28.8%。 2021年末,全国生猪存栏44922万头,同比增长10.5%,其中能繁母猪存栏4329万头,同比增长4.0% ,2017年底分别达到101.7%和96.8%。

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2.2.2. 进出口情况

虽然我国是最大的猪肉生产国,占世界总量的40%以上,但我国猪肉还没有实现100%的自给自足,仍然需要进口。 它还长期是最大的猪肉进口国。

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2.2.3. 价格情况

农业农村部对全国500个县集贸集市定点监测数据显示,2021年生猪价格为13.42元/公斤,同比下降60.0% %; 猪肉价格23.24元/公斤,同比下降55.6%; 仔猪价格30.47元/公斤,同比下降67.3%。

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2.2.4. 生猪上市公司情况

根据上市公司公开披露数据,13家养猪上市公司(牧原股份、正邦科技、温氏股份、新希望、天邦股份、中粮嘉康、大北农、奥农生物、天康生物、唐人神、金新农、龙大肉食、罗牛山)2021年生猪出栏量为,占全国销售生猪67128万头的14.7%。 其中,牧原股份2021年生猪销售4026.4万头,同比增加2215万头,占全国生猪销售量的14.7%。 6%,13家公司。 2017年以来,销售额占比逐年上升,市场集中度持续提升,尤其是龙头企业扩张迅速。 但从全国范围来看,仍有巨大的潜在增长空间。

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3、生猪价格周期及影响因素

3.1. 生猪价格一览表

3.1.1. 历史生猪价格

生猪价格呈现一定的周期性波动,形成“生猪周期”。 生猪周期也是一种经济现象,是指猪价周期性变化的“高价伤民、低价伤农”的奇怪循环,即猪价呈现出周期性上涨和下跌的规律性现象。 。 一般来说,“生猪周期”的循环轨迹是:肉价上涨——母猪存栏量大量增加——生猪供给增加——肉价下跌——母猪大量被扑杀——生猪供应减少——肉价上涨。

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3.1.2. 2021年生猪期货价格回顾

生猪期货于2021年1月8日在大连商品交易所正式挂牌交易,上市以来遭遇惨烈下跌。 从上市之初开盘价29500元/吨,到2022年1月底的13425元/吨,跌幅约55%。

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其走势大致可分为五个阶段: (一)第一阶段:1月8日,生猪期货主力合约LH2109合约基准价为30680元/吨。 但当时南方腌肉需求结束,加上当地过年政策,猪肉需求量较往年有所下降。 北部地区非洲猪瘟疫情再度发生,体重较小的病猪正在出售。 同时,随着春节临近,部分集团企业加大了屠宰计划,导致生猪供应量进一步增加。 此外,市场对年产能恢复情况也相对乐观。 ,因此主力合约价格迅速跌至24000元/吨附近,并在此区间波动了一个月左右。 (二)第二阶段:2月至4月,北方地区非洲猪瘟疫情持续发酵。 养殖端恐慌抛售小型猪,出现惜售正常猪的现象。 此外,这一时期是猪肉消费淡季,生猪现货价格持续下跌。 与现货走势不同,2月份期货价格因非洲猪瘟炒作而上涨。 3-4月份,由于未来生猪供应存在不确定性,期货市场处于观望阶段,价格整体保持高位震荡走势。 (3)第三阶段:5月至9月,随着天气转暖,前期出栏育肥的大猪急需出栏,恐慌性抛售。 不过,此时生猪价格的下跌并未传导至尾盘,猪肉需求依然疲弱,导致现货价格加速下跌。 期货方面,前期非洲猪瘟带来的支撑逻辑被现货价格持续下跌逐渐瓦解,市场快速进入下行通道。 由于行业仍保持之前的思维惯性,无论是团场还是散户生猪的体重都较重,导致市场缺猪但不缺肉。 猪肉供应超过需求。 随着生猪出栏量的不断增加,生猪价格继续受到压制。 。 虽然6月下旬、7月初市场因散户囤货、价格抗压等多种因素出现短暂反弹,但大方向并未逆转。 由于市场上大肥肉依然较多,且养殖端主动去减重、去库存,市场仍处于供大于求的局面,生猪价格在短暂反弹后进入缓慢下跌阶段。 猪价持续下跌至9月底,散户心态崩溃,大规格生猪占比重回低位区间。 (4)第四阶段:国庆节后收储超出预期,价格回落至10元/公斤后,终端需求明显提振。 此外,加上冷空气带来的降温,部分地区对灌肠、腌肉的需求有所提前。 大肥猪需求好转,肥肥价差加大,再次强化散户打压屠宰行为。 屠宰节奏有所推迟,市场供需由宽松转紧,生猪价格开启快速反弹通道。 (五)第五阶段:11月下旬至今,消费不及预期,此后进入长期触底回升期。

3.2. 生猪价格涨跌周期的逻辑

我国生猪产业链一直受到“猪周期”的困扰。 具体来说,猪价周期的原因是,当猪价好时,猪价上涨,养殖户预期继续涨价,因此惜售生猪,进一步推高生猪价格。短期内的价格。 从中长期来看,由于利润丰厚,所以为了扩大存栏量,新的养殖户在看到养猪的利润后也纷纷涌入市场。 由于散户的这种行为往往是非理性的,即补库往往超过市场实际需求,从而导致未来生猪放栏后市场供过于求,导致生猪价格下跌,进而导致生猪价格下跌。生猪价格上涨又会引发散户恐慌性抛售,生猪甚至被提早售空。 由于损失,农户减持库存,损失严重的甚至退出市场。 这样,未来猪价就会因供应不足等原因再次上涨,形成生猪周期。

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从生猪周期图中我们可以看出,养殖利润是导致每一轮生猪周期开始的关键因素,而利润是由生猪价格减去成本决定的,所以当我们分析养殖未来可能的趋势时对企业来说,不能只分析生猪价格,还要考虑养殖成本。 从长期来看,生猪生产成本决定了每个生猪周期的价格底部。 即当生猪价格低于养殖户成本10%左右时,价格基本接近周期底部。 养猪成本的60%来自于饲料成本,因此构成饲料的玉米、豆粕价格可以直接传导到猪肉价格,影响生猪价格周期。

3.3. 主要影响因素

我国生猪品种较多,养殖周期、疫苗等多重因素对影响生猪价格波动起着至关重要的作用。

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(1)供需情况 猪肉供给量=出栏量*平均出栏重*产肉率+月进口量+冻肉交运量。 在生猪的整个生产过程中,两个阶段的扩产各需要14个月。 商品猪阶段,母猪从妊娠到产仔需要3-4个月,仔猪长成商品猪并出栏需要6个月左右。 总共10个月左右。 在此过程中,生猪供需变化可能对生猪价格产生重大影响。

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(二)进出口 进出口主要影响供给。 不过,我国的猪肉基本都是自产自销。 进口量在产量中所占比例较小,不到10%,出口量更可以忽略不计。 出口对猪肉供需影响相对较小。

(3)养殖成本及盈利能力养猪成本一般包括仔猪、饲料、人工、设备折旧、医疗等。 饲料、仔猪、劳动力是成本的主要组成部分。 饲料成本约占总成本的50-60%。 其中,仔猪占总成本的20-30%,劳动力占10%左右。 个体农业和规模化农场之间存在细微差别。 仔猪和主要饲料玉米、豆粕的价格变化对生猪养殖成本影响较大。

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养殖利润的变化带动市场供应主体扩大或减少产能。 当养殖利润增加时,养殖单位在高养殖利润的驱动下,加大仔猪补栏力度,增加未来生猪出栏量; 相反,生猪屠宰量下降。 因此,养殖利润决定了市场供给行为的变化。 (四)疫情、天气等。

在养殖业中,猪病频发,传染性强。 一般来说,如果一头猪生病了,不及时治疗,很快就会影响到其他猪。 猪场常出现的猪病有流感、猪肺炎、伤寒、猪链球菌等。猪病一年内容易频繁发生,且不受季节、气候影响,一旦出现问题,无法有效预防。 必须及时处理。

近年来我国发现非洲猪瘟疫情以来,对生猪养殖业产生了深刻影响。 非洲猪瘟是一种由病毒引起的家猪和野猪的高度传染性疾病。 与传统病毒性疾病相比,非洲猪瘟具有病死率高、抵抗力强、无需疫苗、持续时间长等四大特点。 1921年首次在非洲大陆发现,1957年传播到西欧和拉丁美洲国家。

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目前,仍然没有有效的疫苗来控制非洲猪瘟的传播。 从国际经验来看,应对措施主要包括及时报告疫情、限制疫区和风险区生猪流动、分区控制消灭、扑杀疫区等。 对辖区生猪全部进行焚烧,对车辆和建筑进行消毒,对养猪场进行改造,广泛宣传提高养殖从业人员的认识,加强监测检测。 为防控“非洲猪瘟”疫情,我国采取的措施包括:开展境外疫情防控和疫情溯源调查、加强生猪产品市场环节检测排查、实行生猪运输登记等。车辆,开展生猪运输车辆和生猪产品交付检查。 、加强餐厨残渣监管,将“非洲猪瘟”纳入扑杀补助疫病范围等。

(五)相关政策因素

环保及其他政策

2013年《规模化禽畜养殖污染防治条例》的颁布,标志着禽畜养殖业环保周期的开始。 从政策可以看出,2016年以来,我国进入环保禁养高峰期,力度空前。 从各省拆迁力度和进度来看,南方水网地区拆迁力度明显大于北方; 在2016年4月印发的《2016-2020年生猪生产发展规划》中,农业部综合考虑环保、区域等因素制定了生猪生产发展规划。 生产发展规划将全国生猪生产划分为重点发展区域、限制发展区域和潜力发展区域; 2017年中央一号文件明确提出,要优化南方水网地区生猪养殖布局,引导产能向环境容量大的地区和玉米主产区转移; 2019年,国务院办公厅和多部委通知,必须取消环保政策执行中的不合理规定; 2021年6月12日,国家发展改革委等六部委印发《完善政府猪肉储备调控机制完善猪肉市场》《保障供应稳定价格工作方案》,2021年9月19日农业农村部印发《生猪产能调控实施方案(暂行)》,对后非洲猪瘟时期生猪产能调控提出了具体指导。

中央储备政策

根据国家发展改革委、财政部、农业农村部联合印发的《完善政府猪肉储备调节机制保障猪肉市场供应稳定价格方案》商务部、市场监管总局等部门对过度下跌和过度上涨的情况分别设定三级预警区间,并明确相应的准备金应对措施。 其中,当猪粮比价低于6:1时,国家发改委将发布三级预警,不启动临时储备收购; 当猪粮比连续三周在5:1至6:1之间时,或许有可能重现。 单月母猪存栏同比下降5%,或能繁母猪存栏连续三个月累计下降5%~10%时,发布二级预警,并临时停产。将酌情启动储备; 当猪粮价格比低于5:1时,或单月能繁母猪存栏同比下降10%,或连续三个月能繁母猪存栏累计下降时超过10%,将发布一级预警,中央和地方政府全面启动临时储备收储。

2021年,国家发展改革委会同有关部门进行了两轮共四批次的收储。 7月,启动首轮收储,开展3批中央冻猪肉储备,共计挂牌采购和实际交易5万吨。 42,600吨。 10月,第二轮中央储备冻猪肉启动,首批挂牌招标的3万吨全部售出,成交均价19800-20000元。

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4、生猪产业链

生猪产业链包括饲养、饲养、屠宰、加工、消费和流通。 其中,上游是养殖环节,包括核心群体养殖、祖猪养殖(一元猪)和亲代猪养殖(二元猪); 中流是养殖环节,主要指三元商品猪养殖; 下游是屠宰场、肉类联合厂或肉制品加工制造业。 生猪产业链的外部相关产业包括饲料生产业和兽药及疫苗制造业。 国内大型养殖企业一般自行采购玉米、小麦、豆粕等能源、蛋白质原料来配制饲料或生产。 他们的饲料自给能力很强,很少从外面购买饲料。 中小型农场和散养农户以饲料为主。 饲料厂购买成品饲料(预混料或全价饲料),与部分谷物混合后饲喂,以达到最佳经济效益。

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4.1. 上游 – 育种

此前发表的一份研究报告《【投资机会】深入研究抓住种业投资机会》中有一部分谈到了生猪养殖行业的情况,我在这里单独提一下。

种猪与肉猪不同,主要用于饲养仔猪。 种猪按性别分为种公猪和种母猪; 按品种来源分为本地种猪和引进种猪; 按亲缘溯源分为纯种猪、一元猪、二元猪、三元猪。 我国生猪养殖业采用多级养殖体系,其中曾祖父N农场是核心养殖场,养殖技术壁垒最高。

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不同品种的种猪具有不同的经济性状:长白猪瘦肉率和产羔数较高,而皮特兰猪饲料转化效率较高。

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养殖企业处于生猪养殖行业的上游,利润率居行业最高。 他们拥有生猪养殖所需的重要资源和技术,这对整个生猪养殖业极为关键。

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与国际领先企业相比,中国生猪养殖企业在养殖技术方面存在一定差距。 曾孙猪仍需从海外进口。 核心种猪通常从国外进口,需要不断更换以维持繁殖率。 主要种猪品种如大白猪、长白猪、杜洛克猪等均源自国外。 目前,我国生猪养殖业97%以上的猪品种都是进口猪。 我国进口种猪来源相对集中。 2020年主要来源国为加拿大、美国、法国和丹麦。 我国进口种猪的比例分别为40%、30%、15%和10%。

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国内数据显示,2016年种猪市场生猪价格达到历史最高点,此后开始下降。 2018年,受生猪周期及由此引发的小规模养猪场关停潮影响,种猪市场出现明显下滑。 2019年底后,生猪市场整体缓慢复苏,2020年,我国种猪行业市场规模快速回升。

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2020年,我国种猪市场规模将突破970亿。 从不同世代来看,父代是国内养猪企业中规模最大、能繁母猪数量最多的品种。

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我国头部种猪企业正处于出栏量增加期,下游客户稳定,供需关系良好,市场份额不断提高。 我国养殖业主要企业有:嘉种猪集团、瑞东农牧、天照猪业、金新农、海波尔六和、正奥集团、扬翔股份、天康生物等。

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4.2. 中游——养殖、屠宰、加工

4.2.1. 养殖业

国内生猪养殖模式主要有育肥猪户、母猪养殖户和不同规模自繁自养养殖场三种类型,其中育肥猪户、母猪养殖户和小型自繁自养养殖场他们大多数是农民。 长期以来,我国生猪养殖以个体户为主,市场集中度很低。

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数据显示,2017年,我国年屠宰生猪能力在5万头以上的养殖场有407个。 按组间平均换算的年屠宰规模占全国的1%,1-49头生猪屠宰规模的零售养殖场有3572万个。 年屠宰量占全国的55%。 但近两年,受非洲猪瘟影响,散户撤资比例较大。

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根据中国生猪行业高层交流论坛整理发布的“中国养猪百强企业”中各企业的母猪基本数(统计日期为2021年10月-2021年11月),生猪企业约有150家。拥有10,000多头猪。 约有 108 家公司上榜。 在排名调查中我们了解到,由于目前处于养猪亏损期,这些生猪企业大多没有满负荷生产。 目前基本母猪平均存栏量约为满负荷的三分之二。 生猪企业108家,母猪基数1179万头,占全国正常能繁母猪数4100万头的28.8%。

前30名分别为:牧原集团、温氏集团、新希望六和集团、正邦集团、天邦集团、正大集团、双城集团、德康集团、扬翔集团、奥农集团、中粮集团、大北农业集团、大象集团、天康生物科技、唐人神、嘉禾农牧、海大集团、铁骑力士集团、金新农、广西农垦集团、四川巨星农牧、光明集团、湖北金龙集团、贵州日泉农牧、湖南新五丰、广西梨园集团、广东东鸡智农、四川清泉农牧、山东环山集团、山东隆大肉食有限公司

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4.2.2. 屠宰

目前,行业内屠宰行业规模庞大,但市场结构高度分散。 我国生猪屠宰行业市场集中度明显低于美国等肉类消费大国。 主要原因是,除了私人屠宰、过度屠宰现象严重外,猪肉主产区的地方保护主义也导致大批外资企业难以进入当地市场。 地方屠宰场与政府关系密切,一些地方以市场准入为名搞地方保护的现象长期存在。 尽管近年来我国小型生猪屠宰企业已被淘汰,但生猪屠宰能力仍然极其分散。 数据显示,定点屠宰企业约占市场的44.8%,50%以上的市场仍被私人屠宰和乱屠宰所占据。

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从屠宰量分布来看,屠宰行业所占比重高度分散。 屠宰量排名前50名的企业生猪屠宰量合计占全国定点屠宰企业的14.8%。 其中,屠宰量超过100万头的企业有20家。 龙头企业双汇的市场份额仅为2.4%,其次是雨润、金螺和众品食品,均不足2%。

屠宰企业赚的钱,其实就是生猪和猪肉的差价。 猪肉价格上涨时,生猪价格先上涨,猪肉价格滞后。 而由于终端需求稳定以及畜禽肉的替代,肉类价格涨幅将低于生猪价格区间。 因此,当肉价进入上涨区间时,生猪与肉价的价差将会缩小,从而压缩屠宰企业的利润空间。 肉价下降将提高屠宰企业的利润空间。 因此,现阶段屠宰企业的利润率相对稳定。 。 此外,大型屠宰企业能力较强。 除了赚取差价外,还可以通过仓储销售、产销地运输、进口猪肉赚取季度差价、区域差价、国际差价。

4.3. 产业链衍生产业

4.3.1. 饲料企业:

根据饲养对象不同,饲料可分为猪饲料、肉禽饲料、蛋禽饲料、水产品饲料、反刍动物饲料和其他饲料。 由于我国的消费习惯,猪饲料和禽饲料生产长期占据饲料市场的主导地位,约占总量的85%。 猪饲料的成分主要包括55-60%玉米、15-20%豆粕、5-15%菜籽粕、5-10%其他蛋白质、5%纤维(如麸皮)和少量微量元素和其他物质。

我国主要饲料生产企业有:畜禽饲料,以猪饲料为主有大北农、双城、金新农、新希望、正大集团、温氏股份、正邦科技、天康生物、唐人神等; 水产饲料企业包括通威股份、海大集团、天邦股份等。

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4.3.2. 兽医和疫苗公司

随着我国规模化、集约化生猪养殖的发展趋势,养殖企业和养殖户对猪疫病的防控越来越重视,我国猪疫苗市场整体呈增长趋势。 猪疫苗在兽用疫苗中占比最大,占40%以上。

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我国兽用生物制品按照所针对的疾病是否属于国家强制免疫的范围,可分为国家强制免疫兽用生物制品和非国家强制免疫兽用生物制品两大类。 National compulsory immunization veterinary biological products are vaccine products used by the state to implement compulsory immunization against animal diseases that seriously endanger breeding production and human health. According to the “Veterinary Drug Administration Regulations”, “veterinary biological products required for compulsory immunization shall be Produced by enterprises designated by the veterinary administrative department of the State Council.” At present, my country’s leading companies involved in veterinary biological products mainly include China Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., Biotech Co., Ltd., Rip Biotech, Pleco, Haili Biotech and Keqian Biotech.

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5. Market Outlook

5.1. Supply – will remain at a high level for a long time to come.

(1) Number of pigs in stock

The number of pigs in stock reflects the number of pigs that can be slaughtered. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the number of pigs in stock in 2021 is 449.22 million, which is the highest level in the past six years. In the short term, supply is relatively abundant.

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(2) Number of breeding sows on hand

Reproductive sows refer to sows that have given birth to one litter of piglets and can continue to reproduce normally, that is, sows that have given birth to piglets normally, excluding gilts. A sow can give birth to 2-2.5 litters a year, and large-scale breeding farms generally have around 2-6 litters per litter. Therefore, from the number of reproductive sows, we can estimate the number of commercial pigs that will be available in the next 10 months. According to the national According to the Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of December 2021, the number of reproductive sows in stock was 43.29 million, which was at a high level in the past eight years. According to Zhuochuang data monitoring, the monthly inventory of fertile sows in the sample increased by 0.7% month-on-month in December, and the rate of sow removal in December has slowed down. This reflects that the slaughter volume in the third quarter of 2022 will still be relatively high.

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(3) Number of pigs slaughtered

In 2021, 671.28 million pigs were slaughtered, a year-on-year increase of 27.37%. They were 4.38% and 3.25% lower than in 2017 and 2018 respectively, which is equivalent to the 2010-2011 level.

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(4) Pork production

my country’s pig production has accelerated its recovery in 2021, completing the goals and tasks of the “Three-Year Action Plan to Accelerate the Recovery of Pig Production” half a year ahead of schedule. The annual pork production reached 52.96 million tons, an increase of 28.8% over 2020.

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Judging from the observation of monthly data, surplus continued from May to September 2021. After a brief period of tension from October to November, it entered the surplus stage again. In the short term, supply will still exceed demand, and it is difficult to see an improvement.

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5.2. Demand – there is no obvious increase, it is difficult to be optimistic

(1) In the short term, consumption shows seasonal patterns

According to the laws of pork consumption and price trends over the years, the first half of the year is the off-season for pork consumption, and the second half of the year is the peak season for pork consumption. Consumption is sluggish from February to May after the Spring Festival. Pork prices generally remain high from August to September, and may increase slightly from October to November. In December, due to the influence of seasonal factors such as southern curing and Spring Festival at the end of the year, pork prices usually show a upward trend.

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(2) In the medium and long term, affected by population structure and consumption habits

As my country’s population structure and consumption habits change, pork consumption is on a downward trend. On the one hand, residents’ pursuit of healthy diets and urbanization have brought about dietary diversification. The proportion of pork in the diet has decreased, while the proportion of poultry meat and aquatic products has increased. On the other hand, the aging rate in our country is slowly increasing, and the elderly attach greater importance to healthy diet.

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5.3. Cost and profit – feed costs are high and profits are meager

5.3.1. 成本

(1) Piglet price

The price of piglets has also fallen rapidly. As of the end of January, the average wholesale price of piglets was 13.73 yuan/kg.

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(2) Feed prices (prices of compound feed for fattening pigs, prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, etc.)

Feed prices continue to rise. From the prices of feed grains such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, etc., the upward trend is obvious and will remain at a high level in the short term.

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5.3.2. 利润

Pig breeding is a capital-intensive industry. The production process requires inputs from multiple factors such as capital, population, land, and environmental protection indicators. When there is excess production capacity, farmers will not easily reduce production capacity. Only when most companies in the industry are in a state of loss and the cash flow of companies with low risk resistance is broken will widespread decapacity occur. The depth and time span of losses are the key to decapacity. Judging from the current data on breeding profits, it is basically on the verge of loss. The loss is not large and the time is short, which is not enough to cause large-scale depletion of production capacity.

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5.4. Policy procurement and storage – has little impact on actual supply and demand, but mainly affects the psychological level

According to the work plan for monitoring the pig-grain price ratio stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission and other ministries and commissions, when the pig-grain price ratio is lower than 5:1, the number of breeding sows may drop by 10% year-on-year in a single month, or the number of breeding sows may drop by 10% year-on-year. When the cumulative decline exceeds 10% for three consecutive months, a first-level warning of excessive decline will be issued and temporary stockpiling will be initiated.

According to monitoring by the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of January 24-28, the national average pig-to-grain price ratio was 5.57:1, which has been between 5:1 and 6:1 for three consecutive weeks. The second-level warning range for excessive decline is set in the “Work Plan to Guarantee Supply and Stable Price of Pork Market”. The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to start the purchase and storage of pork reserves as appropriate, and guide local governments to carry out the purchase and storage work in accordance with regulations.

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The purchase and reserve volume has little impact on the national supply, and it is difficult to have a major impact on the spot market. It is not enough to reverse the situation. However, the purchase and reserve volume is a signal release, which alleviates the panic of farmers and plays a role in boosting short-term market confidence. To ensure the profits of farmers, especially during the period of recovery in consumption, the effect of purchasing and stockpiling will be better.

5.5. African swine fever – the epidemic is still difficult to avoid, but it is generally controllable and relatively stable.

African swine fever has been present for more than two years. At present, large-scale breeding farms are generally equipped with complete disinfection equipment. The disinfection measures of large-scale farms have been upgraded. The “ban on pig transportation” restricts the transportation of live pigs. African swine fever is not likely to occur on a large scale. At present, large-scale farms have generally upgraded their disinfection and epidemic prevention systems, and many provinces have introduced pig embargo policies. For example, starting from December 1, 2021, except for pigs from breeding pigs, piglets, African swine fever and other major animal disease-free areas, and pigs from disease-free communities, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other six eastern provinces and cities will no longer accept pigs weighing more than 30 kilograms from outside the area to enter the east. District fattening will no longer accept pigs from outside the eastern region that have not been registered for “point-to-point” transportation.

my country has accumulated rich experience in responding to the African swine fever epidemic. Upgrading of sterilization measures and restricting transportation have cut off the transmission channels of animal epidemics. Therefore, although the risk of African swine fever exists, it is expected that the probability of large-scale occurrence in the future is low and is generally controllable. 稳定下来。

5.6. COVID-19—The impact tends to be weak

The catering industry is the industry hardest hit by the epidemic, and it is also an important scene for pork consumption. The COVID-19 epidemic did not disappear after the epidemic was cleared, and continued to occur sporadically in time and space. The epidemic has also accelerated the expansion of some new consumption models, such as takeout and healthy eating. As the post-epidemic era is gradually adapted, the impact on consumption will tend to weaken.

6. 概述

In the second half of 21, whether it is the reports of securities companies or the reports of some futures companies, 2022 is the turning point of the pig cycle and has become a hot topic. Everyone is making predictions, left-hand trading is prevalent, and breeding stocks have risen sharply in advance; the 2022 far-month pig contract has raised prices early, giving a lot of premiums in advance. However, through the logical analysis of this article, it is found that the market’s publicity of cycle turning points seems to be premature.

At this stage, the supply pressure is still high, and the removal of fertile sows is not complete, which was blocked by the sharp rebound in pig prices in November and December 2021, and even increased slightly. Although the inertial impulse for industry expansion has weakened, it has not disappeared. The growth rate has slowed down, and the probability of growth momentum is higher. The number of pigs sold may increase; on the demand side, seasonal patterns will appear in the short term, and consumption will enter the off-season after the Spring Festival. , as the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the consumption of going out and dining is marginally weakened but still exists, the overall demand in 2022 is not optimistic; in terms of policy, although there are policies such as national procurement and storage, the actual impact on the spot is limited, and more This is mostly reflected in the psychological support for the market; although piglet prices at the cost end are low, feed costs are high, which will inevitably erode the profits of breeding companies.

Our research believes that being more cautious may lead to better grasp of market trading opportunities, farming stocks, and lowering expectations. It is difficult to be optimistic about the next year under the background of high costs. It may be a more rational choice to participate cautiously. For the far-month hog futures contract, it is important to note that there may be an opportunity for the market to return to the spot price in the near delivery month, which may result in greater investment returns.

7. Risk warning

1. The risk of excessive fluctuations in pig prices;

2. The expansion of pig slaughter volume is less than expected;

3. The risk that the impact of swine fever will exceed expectations;

4. The risk of high costs of raw materials such as corn and soybean meal affecting the prosperity of breeding;

5. The sample bias in the statistical data or the risk of affecting the conclusion;

6. Risks of uncertainty in the future of the pig cycle, etc.

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